Pine Belt Progressive

I was overly optimistic last night about the length of time Al Sadr would be willing or able to restrain his forces. Looks like the cease-fire will end sooner rather than later (via Atrios).

Dday had an excellent post about this yesterday, but I didn’t see it until this morning, and Juan Cole has one today.

Daniel Davies, who is not boasting when he notes that he’s been correct an awful lot about this war, sees full-scale massacres or the collapse of the Maliki government in the offing.

If you don’t have time to read all this stuff, here are few key facts as I understand them:

It’s conceivable that either side could win in Basra, but the Sadrists hold the largest single bloc of seats in the parliament and are powerful on the streets of Baghdad. It has been mentioned that they might form a nationalist alliance with Sunni groups against the Badr Brigades who support the government. Al-Sadr himself has raised the possibility of a no-confidence vote. He is also threatening to call for a general strike and a campaign of civil disobedience. If he does, I have to think it will disrupt the tiny bit of normal activity exists in the country and will probably turn violent rather quickly. So maybe we’ll see the Sunni and Sadrists massacred wholesale in Basra, yet bringing down Maliki’s government at the same time.

I think it only gets worse from here, regardless of the outcome in Basra. There are other groups no one is reporting on who could play into this, especially if the situation reaches the point where control of Baghdad and the “national government” are up for grabs. Looks like all sides are losers to me.

It’s going to be a very long spring for our troops and for the Iraqi people. The summer will be even worse, no doubt. So I guess we can officially ask people what planet they’re from when they say the surge was a sound and successful policy.

Read this! (via)

If you haven’t already done so, this would be a good time to endorse the Responsible Plan.