Pine Belt Progressive

Andrew Cockburn has what could be a big-time scoop at Counterpunch:

Six weeks ago, President Bush signed a secret finding authorizing a covert offensive against the Iranian regime that, according to those familiar with its contents, “unprecedented in its scope.”

Bush’s secret directive covers actions across a huge geographic area – from Lebanon to Afghanistan – but is also far more sweeping in the type of actions permitted under its guidelines – up to and including the assassination of targeted officials.

(h/t Elaine Meinel Supkis)

Cockburn reports that $300 million for this covert offensive was approved quickly with bipartisan support from Congress. He also includes this detail about the naval incident between U.S. and Iranian forces in the Persian Gulf last January:

Until recently, the administration faced a serious obstacle to action against Iran in the form of Centcom commander Admiral William Fallon, who made no secret of his contempt for official determination to take us to war. In a widely publicized incident last January, Iranian patrol boats approached a U.S. ship in what the Pentagon described as a “taunting” manner. According to Centcom staff officers, the American commander on the spot was about to open fire. At that point, the U.S. was close to war. He desisted only when Fallon personally and explicitly ordered him not to shoot. The White House, according to the staff officers, was “absolutely furious” with Fallon for defusing the incident.

Fallon’s resignation cleared the way for Petraeus to be promoted to head Centcom. Cockburn appears to believe we’re planning to attack Iran before Petraeus officially moves to his new job, and says we’ve changed deployment schedules in preparation for the attack:

Though Petraeus is not due to take formal command at Centcom until late summer, there are abundant signs that something may happen before then. A Marine amphibious force, originally due to leave San Diego for the Persian Gulf in mid June, has had its sailing date abruptly moved up to May 4. A scheduled meeting in Europe between French diplomats acting as intermediaries for the U.S. and Iranian representatives has been abruptly cancelled in the last two weeks. Petraeus is said to be at work on a master briefing for congress to demonstrate conclusively that the Iranians are the source of our current troubles in Iraq, thanks to their support for the Shia militia currently under attack by U.S. forces in Baghdad.

The article is worth a read, but it isn’t well-sourced enough for me, so I thought I would check and see if anyone else is writing about this. As far as I can tell, no one is. I couldn’t find anything at all about the president authorizing a big covert operation. I did find a couple of stories from April 13 about a meeting between Iran and IAEA officials in Vienna being canceled, and it was not at all clear whether Iran or IAEA were actually responsible for the meeting being canceled.

The 15th Marine Expeditionary Unit did leave San Diego today on two amphibious assault ships, along with various helicopter units and beach assault forces, a guided missile cruiser, and two destroyers. I read several reports of this and did lots of searching, but I didn’t find anyone admitting that this is an early deployment.

Over the weekend, a delegation from the Iraq government went to Iran to discuss allegations made by the U.S. that Iran is arming militias in Iraq. Supposedly the U.S. has evidence in the form of captured weapons. Today, representatives of the Iraqi government distanced themselves from the U.S. allegations and announced they are forming their own committee to investigate the activities of foreign countries in Iraq. A little while later, the government changed their story and announced (in an interview arranged by U.S. officials) that they have “‘concrete evidence’ Iran is fomenting violence” and the purpose of the new Iraqi committee is actually to document the evidence.

Press in the U.K. is reporting that those Iranian nuclear facilities our government has been screeching about for the past few weeks are actually on the back burner, as far as military operations are concerned, and that plans are in the works to strike a “training camp” inside Iran.

Feeling the deja vu yet?

Just a couple of points here. First, I have no idea what’s really going on. The more news I read about this, the more mystified I become. Second, It’s likely that Iran is arming some Iraqis. But, I do not think the fact that a given group possesses weapons manufactured in Iran is sufficient to prove that the Iranian government armed that group. Iraq and Iran share a border. Weapons have been traveling back and forth across it for decades. And I do not think air strikes on Iran will prevent weapons from continuing to traveling across that border.

I do think attacking Iran is likely to have more negative consequences for U.S. forces in Iraq than positive ones. Especially if the we decide to attack them repeatedly or initiate an actual campaign in their territory. Considering the way we have our forces scattered out doing counterinsurgency, and their dependence on supplies from Kuwait, I think it could very well lead to a scenario like this one. (via)

And see Tom Engelhardt today on our military thinkers and their preparations for endless war.